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Will scott morrison win the next election, Coalition vs Labor 2022

Will scott morrison win the next election, Coalition vs Labor 2022 election
Scott Morrison has a more difficult job in 2022 than he did this year when he ran for office.

How the Coalition can win the next election in 2022, and how to do that.

Elections follow the iron rules of arithmetic when the counting is done, so they follow the same rules. Even so, in the run-up to polling day, psychology also plays a role.

They used things that aren't hard numbers to make up for their low chances of getting elected at two important federal elections in recent memory. These things were hope, self-belief, and even faith.

It was Paul Keating's "victory for the true believers" in 1993, and it was Scott Morrison's "miracle win" in 2019. These are two elections in which the leaders used these most human motivations to their advantage, and they won.

In each case, they used them to not only build up their own strength but also to show their confidence in their inner circle and out into the world at large. This "build it and they will come" mentality helped them to beat the odds and win in the end.

Both campaigns were meant to give tired governments another term against newer, more radical ones: John Hewson's Fightback manifesto in 1993, and Bill Shorten's comprehensive tax-and-spend plans in 2019.

It will be more difficult for Morrison to do that in 2022, though.

In the first place, he has already won a game by surprise. Anthony Albanese learned a lot from that, and he wants to do the same thing next time When the election comes, the Labor leader wants it to be a vote on how the government has failed, not how the opposition plans to do things. In the future, Albanese is going to put a lot of attention on the prime minister himself.

When voters didn't know Morrison very well, Morrison was able to fill in the blanks.

He used a clever trick to make himself look like a competent accountant who was also boring. In part, it worked because he was so unthreatening. He was a politician, but he was also a normal person who lived in a small town. Voters didn't want to know more about what was going to happen.

Pearce, in Western Australia, is one of the seats that Labor wants to win in the west now that Christian Porter has stepped down.
Pearce, in Western Australia, is one of the seats that Labor wants to win in the west now that Christian Porter has stepped down.

It's been three years since then, but they do. They see a person who is both good and bad. Some people who have worked with him closely don't like him, and he's been called deceitful, overbearing, and ruthless.

It's also likely that the Coalition is going to be behind in 2022.

Morrison, on the other hand, has told his friends that he will win, and few people doubt him. So, is there a fourth term? Yes, if Morrison can keep the focus on the economy and national security, he will be able to keep the seats the Coalition holds in net terms.

Because of Labor's eight-point two-party lead and the fact that Morrison is only one point ahead in the most recent Newspoll's better PM index, that won't be easy.

Even so, Morrison has told his colleagues that the path to a majority for the opposition is more difficult for them. Even more difficult if you take into account the usual narrowing of polls at the end of this race.

Morrison has 76 seats in the 151-member house, while Labor has 69. Keep what you have and get seven more so you can run your own country.

Labor's Annastacia Palaszczuk might be from Queensland, where the ALP was born, but it's not a good place for the federal government. At this point, there are 30 seats in the House of Representatives. Only six of them belong to the labor party, and they don't think they'll be able to get any more.

Some people in Far North Queensland are angry because of how long it took to respond to the floods and the pandemic, says Warren Entsch, a longtime Liberal member of parliament from Leichhardt. They're now more likely to vote for populists Clive Palmer and Pauline Hanson, though.

In the Northern Territory, it's probably the same. Liberals think Lingiari (5.5%) can win after Warren Snowden's retirement from the Labor Party. Solomon (3.1%) is also mentioned.

So, what about Western Australia? He could live or die here. A "miracle" could help the Liberals keep all of their seats, which would make it easier for Morrison to stay in power. Labor is hoping to get five more seats. That doesn't look like it will happen during the campaign.

People in Pearce, which was Christian Porter's seat, are likely to vote for Labor because of Porter's bad name and a shattered Liberal brand in Western Australia.

Second to last are Swan and Hasluck. Steve Irons, a Liberal MP who is retiring, is leaving the seat in the first place. At just 3.2%, it's also likely that the Liberals will lose. When Ken Wyatt was Minister for Indigenous Australia, Hasluck was held by him. It would take a 6% swing in the Labor Party for that to happen.

Moving east, the recent defeat of the Liberal state government in South Australia makes it more likely that the blue-ribbon jewel of Boothby (1.4 percent) will lose its value. But that could be the extent of damage in the state with ten seats. However, if you look at state voting booth-by-booth, if you apply it to federal boundaries, Sturt at 6.9% is also at risk.

Labour did well at the last election in Victoria, which means there aren't many chances for them in 2022. The only one is Chisholm (0.5 percent ). With "teal" independents trying to get into some of the Liberal party's heartland seats, though, the party isn't as safe as it used to be.

With the help of Andrew Constance, Morrison thinks he can get Gilmore back in New South Wales. In a perfect world, the biggest state would stay about the same. As it stands, there are still no Liberal candidates in key races until the death knell. Plus, liberal seats like Reid (3.2 percent) and Robertson (4.2 percent) are still very at risk.

Liberals say it's possible for them to win in Tasmania against the rules. Morrison wants to win the Lyons seat, which is currently held by the Labor Party (5.1 percent ). But the party could also fall short and lose Bass, which it holds by a tiny 0.4%.

It could all be forgotten if the people decide to change government. They say that when a swing is going, it's going.

If Morrison wins a few games here and there, he can get by with big changes in some areas, even if he loses a lot.

Even though the wild card is the rise of the independents, that's still the main thing. In places like Wentworth and Goldstein, the Liberals are strong. Even if Labor doesn't have enough votes to win, the Coalition could be ousted even if they don't have enough to win. And it will also cost money and resources to defend these seats.

After nearly a decade in office, the Coalition has a lot of scar tissue. Morrison has been the target of a lot of personal criticism on character grounds, mostly from his own side.

Yet, he is an enthusiastic and disciplined campaigner who has shown that he can carry a message, dismantle his opponents', and scare people.

In 2019, it didn't matter if people liked him to keep things the same. That in 2022, his perceived strengths on jobs and economic growth and national security will outweigh his low personal standing. This is what he'll be hoping for, though.

Who knows? Surely, that's what both sides learned in 2019. It's not over until it's over. Morrison is sure about this even though other people aren't sure.


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