A commitment made by Brett Sutton comes back to haunt him on the darkest day of the Victorian epidemic.
Chief health officer Brett Sutton's commitment made during last year's lockdown has backfired on him on Victoria's most critical day.
After Melbourne's lockdown last year, Victoria's top health officer Brett Sutton swore that his state would never again see case numbers exceed 300 a day.
At least under Brett Sutton's leadership we will not see 300s and 400s again in Victoria, he assured reporters on August 23.
The professor's words, however, have come back to haunt him almost a year after they were spoken. Since the outbreak began, Victoria has had 324 locally acquired cases each day.
Unknown infections and outbreaks have been implicated in only 107 additional cases, while the source of 217 cases is under investigation.
Announcing that he was "not startled" by the rising numbers, Premier Daniel Andrew warned Victoria that the state hasn't yet hit its pinnacle.
I'm not surprised," Mr. Andrews stated.
This virus is extremely contagious, so we're likely to see an increase in cases.
So that our doctors and nurses can fight fairly, we must maintain their numbers as low as possible, but not at zero. "
It is estimated that there would be 18,000 cases in Victoria by mid-October, with 800 people being hospitalized.
It was estimated that 8000 cases were active and 650 individuals were in the hospital at the height of the state's second wave last year.
"The alternative is too horrible to consider," Professor Sutton said in a statement on Saturday, urging Victorians "to continue to respect the rules".
Without those incredibly difficult limits, he said, "thousands of cases could become our reality." He concluded.
It was predicted by biostatistician and epidemiologist Adrian Esterman at the University of South Australia that the number of daily cases could reach 450 by the end of this week, according to The Age.
It is estimated that by September 23, when 70 percent of the eligible population is expected to have received at least one dose of vaccination and some restrictions could be removed, there could be up to 1834 daily cases. This is greater than what NSW reported in its most recent outbreak.
At the moment, the epidemic curve in Victoria has slowed down far more than it had in NSW at this time in the outbreak, Prof Esterman said.
If nothing else happens, the cases will go fairly quickly.
It's possible that a greater vaccination rate will be needed to stop the outbreak in Victoria, according to James Trauer, the head of Monash University's epidemiological modeling team.
Melbourne has always had greater problems since it is a colder and more temperate city, said Associate Professor Trauer.
A lot of hospitalizations are expected in the next few weeks, which is a bit concerning.
Response commander Jeroen Weimar said Thursday that despite tight stay-at-home rules, the virus was spreading in families.
Especially in Melbourne's northern and western suburbs, Mr. Weimar added, authorities are observing "strong community transmission".
When the first individual comes forward to be tested, the entire home is positive, he said.
As a result, "[this] not only shows that we have seen some amount of household-to-household interaction but also that coronavirus has been present for a number of days, if not a number of weeks," he said.
As a result, it's difficult for everyone to find you. Because new cases are picked up and there are many others who have been infected for several days prior to that, we see a paid escalation of numbers."
An open letter from Melbourne's north urged state and federal governments to deliver additional Pfizer dosages to the region to prevent an unsustainable rise in hospitalisation. The letter was signed by GPs, pharmacists, and community leaders from the area.
It was "vital" that the vaccination supply be on par with what was provided in Sydney's west, according to the letter.
When it comes to coronavirus cases, "the vaccination rate in Hume LGA is now the second lowest in the state," they stated.
As a result, "our healthcare system will be put under tremendous strain, and people's lives will be put at risk."