Melbourne Cup 2022 form guide and betting
The race that stops the country is coming soon, and we have everything you need to get ready for it.
The famous two-mile race in Flemington, where the Melbourne Cup is held.
The track is likely to be either soft or heavy as it will be raining and cold before and during the race.
The race will start on Tuesday, November 1 at 3pm (AEDT), and you can watch it on Channel 10.
Here's everything you need to know to pick a big race winner, including how to bet $100.
Here is punters.com.au's full analysis of the horses at the Melbourne Cup, with arguments for and against each. Also includes the site's top four tips and betting strategies for $100.
The initial speed was against the outer rails here, and the Serpentines and Knights Order were bound to run across barriers 23 and 24, respectively. So, there must be a real initial velocity, and the field must be spread over the first 800m. From a good gate, you should be able to use Numerian, High Emocean, and Interpretation. The favourites, Deauville Legend, fit into cover in midfield, while Camorra, Hoo Ya Mal, and Without A Fight will need a bit of luck early on to find their place.
After Saturday's draw, you can also view the full list of hurdles here.
ANALYSIS (Odds TAB up to date at 07:00 November 1st (Odds TAB up to date at 07:00 November 1)
1. TRIP TO GOLD
Weight: 57.5kg; Barrier: 14; Odds: $19 to win, $5 to place; Trainers: Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace; Rider: Mark Zahra;
The import from Maher and Eustace has finally started to pick up speed in Australia. It came in second in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) and then didn't do well in the Cox Plate (2040m). His best performance over 2400m is world-class, but he is a complete unknown after that.
Why he can win: A horse carrying 6kg less than him just barely beat him at the end of the Caulfield Cup. His last race, the Cox Plate, was where he should have finished, and he does well on wet ground.
Why he can't win: He hasn't raced further than 2400m before and has had a hard time getting ready after a long break. The last horse to win the Cup with more than 57kg was Makybe Diva in 2005, who had 58kg.
2. DUAIS
55.5kg, Gate 10, Odds: $21 to win, $6.00 to place, Trainer: Edward Cummings, Jockey: Hugh Bowman
The Edward Cummings-trained mare was one of the favorites for both Cups this spring, but she hasn't been at her best this prep. Her performance in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) here two races ago was nothing special, but she showed more promise in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last time out, when she moved up from 16th at the 400m mark to finish 8th. Maybe she wants to go on this trip?
Why she can win: She was great when she won the Australian Cup at this track, and she was just as good or better when she won the Tancred Stakes. In her last race, the Caulfield Cup, she did well even though the pace was too fast.
Why she can't win: She did well in her last race, the Caulfield Cup, but there are better horses here. She hasn't placed in any of her four races this season, and she's not the same horse we saw in the fall.
3. KNIGHTS ORDER
55.5 kg, post position 24, odds of $14 to win and $4.20 to place, trainers Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott, jockey Tim Clark.
Knights Order lost this race by 25.65L last year, but that was on a Good 4 track, and he hadn't been running well before that. He's doing much better this time and is about to hit the wet ground he likes best. He fought hard to finish fourth in the G1 Turnbull Stakes (2000m) two races ago, and then he kicked hard when under pressure to finish second in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last time out.
Why he can win: He gets out in front and responds when challenged, like he did in the Caulfield Cup when he got up off the ground to grab third place in his last race. He won the Sydney Cup over this distance, and he loves wet ground.
Why he can't win: His Sydney Cup form isn't usually good enough, and he only carried 51.5kg there, but this time he has to carry 55.5kg. He's run five times at Flemington but has never finished in the top three.
4. MONTEFILIA
55.5 kg, Gate 11, Odds: $11 to win, $3.40 to place, Trainer: David Payne, Jockey: Jason Collett
Montefilia's last race, the Caulfield Cup (2400m), was ruined by a flat spot from the 600m to the 450m mark. She fell off Gold Trip's back and had to get back on in the straight, which she did very strongly. She didn't do very well in the G2 Hill Stakes (2000m) at Randwick before, but that was on a Heavy 8 track.
Why she can win: She did a great job in the Caulfield Cup, and if she hadn't lost her spot and momentum around the home turn, she could have really tested Durston. She ran here once before and got a G1 finish in the 2020 VRC Oaks.
Why she can't win: She placed in the Oaks, but that's as far as she's been (2500m), and she wasn't strong at the end. She was really bad on a Heavy 8 track two-back.
5. NUMERIAN
55.5 kg, Gate 7, Odds: $51 to win, $14 to place, Trainer: Annabel Neasham, Jockey: Tommy Berry
Numerian doesn't have great change-up speed, but he tries hard and has been very consistent since coming in last in the G1 Doncaster (1600m). He finished third in the G2 Hill Stakes (2000m) two races ago and fifth in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) last time. In the G2 Hill Stakes, he beat the in-form Cascadian and Montefilia.
Why he can win: He has been in great shape this year, always running near the top in Listed and Group races. He does well on wet ground, and in his last race, the Caulfield Cup, he was only 1.15L behind the winner.
Why he can't win: He had a chance to win the Caulfield Cup, but he didn't seem to be able to go the full 2400m. Adding an extra 800m seems like a huge question.
6. WITHOUT A FIGHT
55.5 kg, Post 18, Odds: $11 to win, $3.20 to place, Trainers: Simon and Ed Crisford, Jockey: William Buick
Without A Fight lost his last race as the $3.50 favorite at Newmarket, but it was a good race and came after two straight 2787m wins by 1.8L and 3.5L. He usually gets into the picture early and hires one of the best jockeys in the world, William Buick, to ride for him.
Why he can win: He almost never has a bad race. In 17 races, he has only been last three times. He won back-to-back races over 2787m with ease in June and July, so he should be able to handle the distance.
Why he can't win: He's never raced on a track that was really wet, and his best races have been on dry tracks. Barrier 18 means that he'll have to start looking for a job early.
7. CAMORRA
55 kg, Post 17, Odds: $61 to win, $12 to place, Trainers: Ben and JD Hayes, Jockey: Ben Melham.
You couldn't bet on Camorra based on his last race, the G1 Irish St. Leger (2816m), where he lost by more than 20L. The soft track seemed to hurt him there, since he did so well when he won the G2 Curragh Cup on the same route before. So, he needs it to stop raining and the track to get dry.
Why he can win: He won the Curragh Cup, which is the same race that Twilight Payment and Rekindling won before they won the Melbourne Cup. He can change things up, but his best form (beating the talented stayer Wordsworth) fits this well.
Why he can't win: He has only had one race since June, when he won the Curragh Cup. That race, the Irish St. Leger, was terrible, and Kyprios beat him by 20.7 lengths. In his last three races on wet ground, he has lost by large margins.
8. DEAUVILLE LEGEND
55 kg, post 9, win $3.60, place $2.00, trainer James Ferguson, jockey Kerrin McEvoy
As a 4-year-old horse that hasn't raced much, this horse from abroad has a similar profile to Cross Counter (2018) and Rekindling (2017), both of which won the Cup last year (2017). Only once in seven races has he not finished in the top two, and his last race, the G2 Great Voltigeur Stakes (2385m), he won with ease. His form is hard to beat, but he needs to show that he can do it for two miles.
Why he can win: He looks a lot like 2018 Cup winner Cross Counter, except that he is heavier. In his last race, the Great Voltigeur Stakes, he beat El Bodegon, who came in second in the Cox Plate. This race has been won three times by Kerrin McEvoy, a jockey.
Why he can't win: He's never raced farther than 2615m and has never been on a soft track. Two miles on a real rain-soaked track could be hard for him, especially with 55kg, which is more weight than other international runners with similar credentials have carried in this race before.
9. STOCKMAN
54kg — Barrier 12 — Odds: win $26, place $7 — T: Joe Pride — J: Sam Clipperton
Stockman ran over 2000m at Rosehill on Saturday, which was a bit of a surprise since he just won the St. Leger (2600m) two weeks ago. He's already had six starts this season, most of them on wet tracks, so fitness won't be a problem. He has only run once before over this distance, and he lost by 13.16 lengths. That race was this year's Sydney Cup.
Why he can win: He can swim, so rain is good for him. He has been very consistent this season. His last race, which he won, was over 2600m on a wet track.
Why he can't win: In the Sydney Cup over this distance, he came in 13.16L behind the winner. He lost three times in a row to Alegron and Knights Order and seemed to have a chance in the Metrop.
10. VOW AND DECLARE
54kg — Barrier 4 — Odds: win $26, place $7 — T: Danny O'Brien — J: Blake Shinn
Vow And Declare won this race by surprise in 2019, but then came in 18th in 2020. Last year, he only had three runs, and they were all pretty average. But O'Brien has helped him get back on track for this season. He did well in the G3 Bart Cummings (2,510m) two races ago, and he did the same in the Caulfield Cup (2,400m) at his most recent race. He still needs to get better, but he should be ready to reach his best.
He won this race in 2019 and only has 2kg more to carry this time. This spring, O'Brien has helped him get back in shape. He fought hard in the Caulfield Cup and came in second, 2 lengths behind the winner.
He hasn't won a race since the 2019 Cup, which is about 14 races ago. In fact, in that time, he's only been placed twice. He wants nothing worse than a Soft 7.
11. YOUNG WERTHER
54 kg, Gate 21, Odds: $41 to win, $10.00 to place, Trainer: Danny O'Brien, Jockey: Damian Lane
Young Werther's one and only win came in a Geelong maiden over 1500m 13 races ago. Since then, he's been in some hot races where he's done well. His last race, the Cox Plate (2040m), was not his best, but he still finished with Gold Trip. He has raced well over 2400m (against people his own age), but he hasn't gone further.
Why he can win: In the Turnbull Stakes at this track last year, he gave class stayer Incentivise a scare. His form this season has been good, and his last race, the Cox Plate, was only 3.1 lengths behind Anamoe.
Why he can't win: He still only has one win, and he doesn't do well in races longer than 2500m. He came in second in the Vic Derby, but Johnny Get Angry won. He has been picked to give the leaders a big head start.
12. HOO YA MAL
53.5kg; Gate 15; Odds: $15 to win, $4.40 to place; Trainers: Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott; Jockey: Craig Williams;
Except for his most recent race, the G1 English St. Leger (2922) at Doncaster, Hoo Ya Mal has been very consistent. He lost by 7.1L there, even though it looked like he had a good chance. Before that, though, he had a big win at Goodwood over 2816m after finishing with Deauville Legend in the G3 Gordon Stakes (2412m).
Why he can win: Three races ago, he was only 0.4L behind Deauville Legend over 2412m, but his jockey let go of the whip at that point. Fiorente, who had also done well in the Gordon Stakes, helped Waterhouse win the Cup in 2013.
Why he can't win: His last race, the English St. Leger, was a disaster, which was blamed on the soft ground. If the track is a Soft 7 or lower here, that's not a good sign.
13. SERPENTINE
53 kg, Post 23, Odds: $51 to win, $13 to place, Trainer: Robert Hickmott, Jockey: John Allen.
Serpentine will give Knights Order some competition for the lead, which could help set a strong pace early on. The import owned by Lloyd Williams has been a huge disappointment in Australia, but it did improve in the G3 Archer Stakes (2500m) on Saturday at this track.
Why he can win: When he came in second in the Archer Stakes on Derby Day, he finally showed something. In 2020, he won the Epsom Derby by about 5.5L.
Why he can't win: Before his Archer performance on Saturday, he hadn't fired a shot in four races in Australia. Aside from the winner, every horse in that race was out of shape.
14. DAQIANSWEET JUNIOR
53 kg, Post 13, Odds: $51 to win, $12 to place, Trainer: Phillip Stokes, Jockey: Daniel Moor
This year's winner of the G2 Adelaide Cup (3200m) has done well in all three races this season. He did have reasons why he didn't win the G3 Bart Cummings (2510m) here last time, when he had to cover more ground. He has done better when the ground is dry than when it is wet.
Why he can win: He won the Adelaide Cup over this trip and did well on a Heavy 10 in the Sydney Cup. His last race, the Bart Cummings, wasn't the best, but he was only 2.4 lengths behind the winner.
Why he can't win: The Adelaide Cup wasn't a good race, and in the Sydney Cup, Knight's Order beat him by 4.58L. In three races this season, he has never done better than seventh.
15. GRAND PROMENADE
53 kg; Gate 1; Odds: $71 to win, $17 to place; Trainers: Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace; Jockey: Harry Coffey
Last year, Grand Promenade didn't do well in this race, and it hasn't been the same horse since. In his four races, he hasn't looked like he could place. His last race, the G2 Moonee Valley Cup (2500m), he was 11.75 lengths behind Francesco Guardi. He needs it to be dry, which doesn't seem likely.
Why he can win: He came in sixth place in this race last year, even though he had a hard time getting there. He has won three times at this track, and his stable is smart.
He hasn't done anything in his four races since last year's Cup, so he can't win. In his last race, the Moonee Valley Cup, he was given a good ride but still lost badly. He loses if he gets anything worse than a "Soft 6."
16. ARAPAHO
52.5 kg, Post 19, Odds: $61 to win, $15 to place, Trainer: Bjorn Baker, Jockey: Rachel King
Arapaho has been in training since March. Since then, he has raced 14 times and won three times. One of those wins was in the G3 Premier's Cup (2000m) at Randwick, where he beat Francesco Guardi. His last race, the St. Leger, was good over 2600m, but Stockman was better.
Why he can win: He does well on wet tracks, where 12 of his 14 career places have come. During this season, he beat Franceso Guardi and was close with Durston.
Why he can't win: He was held back in the Metrop two starts ago and finished 1.82 lengths behind Stockman over 2600m in his last race. He's been up for a long time, and it's unlikely that this training will help him much.
17. EMISSARY
51.5 kg, Post 3, Odds: $31 to win, $8.00 to place, Trainer: Mike Moroney, Jockey: Patrick Moloney
It's hard to get a good read on Emissary. He didn't do much in the G2 Herbert Power (2400m) two starts ago, but he did well in the G3 Geelong Cup (2400m), which was very similar. He comes in light with 51.5kg, but he doesn't want it to be too wet.
Why he can win: In his last race, he won the Geelong Cup, which has been a good predictor of success in this race in the past. He goes from weighing 56 kg to only 51.5 kg.
Why he can't win: He may have done much better in the Geelong Cup because the ground was firmer. He won't get that here, and he hasn't run well past 2500m in the past.
51.5kg — Barrier 12 — Odds: win $23, place $7.00 — T: Grahame Begg — J: Michael Dee
Lunar Flare was scratched the morning of the Cup because she was lame in her off fore.
19. SMOKIN' ROMANS
51.5 kg, 16th post, $18 to win, $4.60 to place, trainers Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace, jockey Jamie Kah.
Smokin' Romans has been a big surprise this spring. He won the G3 Naturalism (2000m) on a heavy track and then won the G1 Turnbull Stakes by 1.5 lengths on a soft track (2000m). In his last race, the Caulfield Cup (2400m), he was left flat-footed, which was more the fault of the driver than of him. So, he didn't do too badly there.
Why he can win: In the Caulfield Cup, he was sent out as the favorite ($3.90), but he was a little unlucky and Kah may have missed the boat. He is good on any surface and has won three times over 2500m.
Why he can't win: In the Caulfield Cup, he wasn't in the A-ground, but it still wasn't a good test for the Melbourne Cup. In his only other race at this distance, he lost by 21.4L.
20. ROSE TRALEE
51.5 kg, Post 22, Odds: $71 to win, $17 to place, Trainer: Simon Wilde, Jockey: Dean Yendall
Tralee Rose seemed to be going well as she got close to the final turn in the Caulfield Cup (2400m) at her last race, but she got hit hard by the horse that won, Durston, and lost speed. She got back up and found the finish line well, which was her best performance since finishing ninth in last year's Melbourne Cup.
Why she can win: In five races at this track, the only time she didn't place was in the Melbourne Cup last year, when she galloped on in the race. In her last race, the Caulfield Cup, she was unlucky not to finish a bit higher.
Why she can't win: Last year, when she lost by 16.7L in this event, she was doing much better. She has finished 7th (out of 7), 14th, and 13th in her last three races. To be fair, she wasn't the best in the Caulfield Cup.
21. POINT NEPEAN
51kg — Barrier 20 — Odds: SCRATCHED, T: Robert Hickmott — J: Wayne Lordan
Monday morning, Racing Victoria stewards told Point Nepean that he couldn't run in the race because his blood levels were too high.
22. HIGH EMOCEAN
50 kg, Gate 8, Odds: $26 to win, $17 to place, Trainers: Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace, Jockey: Teo Nugent
High Emocean has come in first or second in 12 of her 22 races, and she is good on all types of surfaces. She lost the Bagot Handicap (2800m) here in January, but it's clear that she's gotten better since then. The question is whether she has improved enough to be able to compete in this.
Why she can win: She's very good on heavy, wet ground, which is what she needs to win (3:2-0-1). She's ready for this because her last four races were all over 2400m or more.
Why she can't win: She had a great ride to win the Bendigo Cup, which doesn't look like the right form for this. She hasn't proven herself over this distance range yet. In the St. Leger, she came in 14 lengths behind Warning over 2600m.
23. INTERPRETATION
50 kg, 6th barrier, $51 to win, $11 to place, Ciaron Maher and Dave Eustace as trainers, Craig Newitt as jockey.
This import was trained by Maher and Eustace. He came to Australia with a bit of buzz because he had won three of his first six races, including a Listed race over 2816m in Ireland that he won easily. He's had different reasons, but so far he hasn't done well for his new stable, with the exception of a solid third place finish behind Lunar Flare in the G3 Bart Cummings (2510m) two races ago.
Why he has a chance to win: He did well in the Bart Cummings two-back, and Francesco Guardi has made him even better. His performance on the international stage shows that he can handle the distance, especially since he only has to carry 50kg.
Why he can't win: In his last race, the Geelong Cup, he lost by 4.15 lengths and pulled up lame. When they raced over 2500m here three-back, High Emocean had him in his sights.
24. REALM OF FLOWERS
50 kg, Post 5, Odds: $12 to win, $3.40 to place, Trainers: Anthony and Sam Freedman, Jockey: Damien Thornton
Realm Of Flowers was pulled from the Archer on Derby day, so it's clear that the Freedman stable has no worries about how fit she is. She has only had three races since finishing sixth in last year's G3 Bart Cummings (2520m). Her most recent race, the G1 Metrop, which she just missed, was by far her best.
Why she can win: In her last race, the Metrop, she had the best run of the bunch and only lost by a nose. Last year, she won by 4.75 lengths over 2800m here and can handle wet ground.
Why she can't win: In her three Melbourne races since her Andrew Ramsden win, she has been well held. She lost the 2021 Sydney Cup by 3.8 lengths, and Carif beat her in the Sandown Cup over this distance.
VERDICT
8. Deauville Legend
6. Not Fighting
12. Hoo Ya Mal
3. Knights Order
$100 BETTING STRATEGY
$50 on Deauville Legend
$50 boxed quinella: 6, 8, 12